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Column published the week of February 4, 2008 www.theleeonline.com © 2008, Lee Ostaszewski

Super Duper Tuesday

By Lee Ostaszewski As we stand poised on the brink of an historic day, a day when residents in 22 states head to the ballot box to cast their votes in the Super Duper Tuesday primary elections, the biggest question on your mind this morning (or maybe it’s this afternoon or this evening) is: “Lee, how close were your predictions you made last February about the candidates?” It’s funny, but I was wondering that same thing myself. So I went back to read them this week. To refresh your memory, last February I wrote two articles that attempted to handicap both presidential primary races. At the time, each party had approximately as many declared candidates running as there are horses in the Kentucky Derby. I focused on the frontrunners, listing each candidate in order by their then current national poll numbers. For example, a year ago, Rudy Giuliani was the Republican frontrunner. Back then he was mainly known as the former New York mayor during 9/11 and a huge Yankees fan. “Other than that he is the perfect candidate and early frontrunner,” I wrote last year, “because no one west of Newark, New Jersey knows much more than that about him, which is always a political advantage.” People eventually did get to know Rudy and last Wednesday he dropped out. I predicted that Sen. John McCain would have a Howard Dean-type meltdown. He always appears to be on the edge. Look at his eyes. There’s been no China Syndrome so far (70s reference alert!) and now he’s the one to beat. But even if he becomes the nominee, a meltdown could be only a wrong coffee order away. Can you believe Newt Gingrich was third in the polls this time last year? I equated his possible political return to a horror flick where every time you think the monster is dead it comes back to life and runs for president. For now, it’s dead. The fourth place contender for the GOP was Mitt Romney, who at the time had just tossed his hat into the ring, which he wouldn’t wear anyway because it mussed up his hair. I called him the Sybil candidate (another 70s reference alert!) for the multiple political stance disorder he suffers from. But I reserve the right to change my position on that.

Then there was a bunch of other candidates that no one had ever heard of, such as Mike Huckabee. My prediction was that the top candidates would all implode at some point and a dark horse, if not an actual person, would win the Republican nomination. We’ll know more after Super Duper Tuesday, but I still give frontrunners imploding a 10 percent chance. My score: an Incomplete. The Giuliani fade was a correct call, but a gimme. We have to wait on the rest. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton was the frontrunner a year ago but like Rudy I thought she would fade, too. Her support runs deeper than I imagined. I did predict that in the end President Bill would help drag her down. My mistake was thinking it would be his past scandals that did it, when it could turn out to be his recent campaign tactics. Still, Super Duper Tuesday can go either way and Hillary Clinton for President LLC might still be open for business on Wednesday. Here’s what I wrote about Barack Obama last year: “When he spoke during the 2004 Democratic National Convention, his speech was electrifying and genuinely passionate, two qualities routinely avoided in modern politics, where most speeches sound as forced as a high school drama club member trying to dramatically read the legal notices printed in the newspaper. If Obama-mania grows, it could send him to the White House.” Honestly, has any of that changed in the past year? He dropped out on Wednesday, but even a year ago I wondered who keeps inviting John Edwards to these things. He’s a nice guy, but forgettable. Like the guy who shows up at a party, but then a month later when you’re talking about it with others, no one can remember him being there. I bet even John Kerry forgets from time to time that Edwards was his running mate in ‘04. As for the other candidates, as I said last February, with Hillary and Obama at the top no one else stood a chance. It’s like the AL East: this was a two person race from opening day. My Score: If Obama wins the nomination, an A. If Hillary wins, a C for missing the Hillary, Inc. groundswell of support. Hold on tight, folks, Super Duper Tuesday begins shortly. ■